A former banker and real estate investor asked me for 8 points about what I believe in to stimulate a future conversation. I limited myself to beliefs about the current system. Ill do another 8 beliefs about other parts of the human experience later on.
1-- Central Control has failed every time its tried and it tends to collapse suddenly without much explanation. What this means for the future is China is going to hit a wall and the governmental structures their will have a crisis they cant solve with typical top down leadership endemic to Chinese society.
2--The benefits of a society where control is spread far and wide through the structure (proper checks and balances) only gain the benefits of a good structure slowly over time. In this way state socialism and oligarchy are seductive to the human mind while freedom seems like a hardship to administrators, leaders, and intellectuals the world over. All three could not be more wrong.
3-- The American government over time will have fewer checks and balances and power will pool in only a few hands until the USA more resembles today's China in terms of governmental structure. This is very VERY bad and signals the end of America's dominant place in the world if it continues.
4-- The source by which governments become more evil (yes Evil!) over time is money printed out of thin air by some central bank. This allows central authorities to appear expedient and efficient while destroying the economic prospects of the young and the unborn by passing the debt on to them. This is why its rare or even unknown to see governments pay for health care costs out of current revenues YEAR by YEAR.
5-- Socialism only appears to work in the beginning. Out of every 10 currency units governments will "keep" 8 of those units for graft corruption and bribes to politicians, bureaucrats and fake capitalists with their hands in the law making machinery. Four of those currency units are used to pay some of the current obligations. The rest is never paid for but pretending consists of adding layer upon layer of inflation, debit and dubious finance on this system so it all "pretends to work". What makes this all work in the vast majority of human beings are math illiterate. The government finances in most world government should have caused huge ongoing protests as the statements put lie to the claim that "government money is your money" or that "you are the government". Lies!
6-- The benefits of laissez faire capitalism were ignored and maligned in history books because administrators, political leaders, and intellectuals don't feel the benefits of the system and would rather create a system where they need not put in much "sweat equity". They would rather fiddle with the controls of a system that is deteriorating and will bring them down with everybody else. Why? Being rejected on a free market hurts emotionally. Emotionally its so much easier to stick issue an "opinion with a gun" also known as a "law".
7-- Slavery did not end with the emancipation of Africans from working cash crops. Point 1-7 simply replaced obvious slavery with the sort of "mixed economy" we have today. People still get shot or imprisoned for failing to pay their taxes, so slavery never really ended. Slavery just became less obvious and more subtile and seemly invisible via bad ideas and inattention paid to absolutes.
8-- Examples of truly free societies (societies without rulers and societies without institutionalized looters/brainwashed victims) are limited to places where their was not much surplus value to steal. For this reason anarchist places or forms of social organization look really really poor to observers looking only at effects rather then asking "why are things this way". The answer is humanity has been good at riding itself parasites that are from other species but really really poor at detecting and ridding itself of parasites in the form of other human beings that have clever stories and a police force capable of intimidating or bull shitting away from your hard earned money.
Monday, April 14, 2014
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Confessions of A budding Sci Fi novelist
I love science fiction and I love politics. So I am writing a novel that will combine the two into a fun and engaging package. The journey has not been easy. Not in the slightest. The old roomers about Louis L'Amour writing a Western novel in a single day, with a type writer, on a busy new York street are the stuff of legend. Having tried to write a novel has made this story even less believable then before I tried such an enticing enterprise. The number of re-writes I have done so far are staggering, as inconsistencies are worked out.
Perhaps the biggest re-write came as a result of a deeply influential online philosopher, named Stefan Molyneux Of.... Freedomain Radio . No single change has provoked more alterations then how I would define the life choices of my main character. My main character started out as a James Bond type figure but with a wife in the same profession and some added background in communications and sciences. Fortunately my contact with Mr Molyneux and a sort of real world proof of concept in the Egyptian revolution combined together to make this original main character explode into a million pieces in my mind. I knew from that moment that my main character could not be a spy working for a government of any type. A "hero" loyally working as a government employee, as James Bond did, now, just seems grotesque and silly.
Having come in contact with Ayn Rand my most basic assumptions did not really change, in a bone deep way. This change in outlook, however flirtatious, is more fundamental. Limited government just isn't the stuff of my passionate political fantasies anymore as it was during my libertarian phase. Some vague budding sense of enlightened Anarchy, is definitely whispering seductively and touching me tenderly now. Letting this philosophical midnight tryst and change of lovers, bleed into the ink of my novel seems unavoidable.
My original main characters, just could not survive this change in myself. So an unassuming Canadian stay at home DAD, has slain my original government trained Muay Thai wielding, master spy. Now I remake the character into a former nano-tech researcher, determined to make the world as safe as he can for his young children... Caught up in a world still vulnerable to the catastrophic abuse of technology by violent adolescent governments... and a few "hidden and surprising outsiders" too.
Thanks Stefan Molyneux, for killing a main character, before I let it out into the light of a publisher for review. Slaying bad novel characters before they can darken the printed page must all be in a days work, for a good practitioner of the philosophical arts.
Perhaps the biggest re-write came as a result of a deeply influential online philosopher, named Stefan Molyneux Of.... Freedomain Radio . No single change has provoked more alterations then how I would define the life choices of my main character. My main character started out as a James Bond type figure but with a wife in the same profession and some added background in communications and sciences. Fortunately my contact with Mr Molyneux and a sort of real world proof of concept in the Egyptian revolution combined together to make this original main character explode into a million pieces in my mind. I knew from that moment that my main character could not be a spy working for a government of any type. A "hero" loyally working as a government employee, as James Bond did, now, just seems grotesque and silly.
Having come in contact with Ayn Rand my most basic assumptions did not really change, in a bone deep way. This change in outlook, however flirtatious, is more fundamental. Limited government just isn't the stuff of my passionate political fantasies anymore as it was during my libertarian phase. Some vague budding sense of enlightened Anarchy, is definitely whispering seductively and touching me tenderly now. Letting this philosophical midnight tryst and change of lovers, bleed into the ink of my novel seems unavoidable.
My original main characters, just could not survive this change in myself. So an unassuming Canadian stay at home DAD, has slain my original government trained Muay Thai wielding, master spy. Now I remake the character into a former nano-tech researcher, determined to make the world as safe as he can for his young children... Caught up in a world still vulnerable to the catastrophic abuse of technology by violent adolescent governments... and a few "hidden and surprising outsiders" too.
Thanks Stefan Molyneux, for killing a main character, before I let it out into the light of a publisher for review. Slaying bad novel characters before they can darken the printed page must all be in a days work, for a good practitioner of the philosophical arts.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Inconsistency is a luxury Americans and the world can no longer afford.
The humorist and political pundit Bill Whittle came up with some excellent commentary about the ACORN child prostitute scandal, which can be found at the website below.
Now here is my personal reply below. Sometimes conservatives are bad about inconsistency in applying the lessons of history to policy. Few people seem to think about history much, or the limitations of public spending when making policy. Be it as it may, the small mistakes of wise men are always more injurious then the same mistakes made by known fools. Here is my attempt at a correction in the video below. I apologize in advance if the video itself is not syncing properly with the sound.
Now here is my personal reply below. Sometimes conservatives are bad about inconsistency in applying the lessons of history to policy. Few people seem to think about history much, or the limitations of public spending when making policy. Be it as it may, the small mistakes of wise men are always more injurious then the same mistakes made by known fools. Here is my attempt at a correction in the video below. I apologize in advance if the video itself is not syncing properly with the sound.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Freedom's Next 20 years
Fear is rampantly scrawled along the pages of our media from newspapers to websites. I am NOT the first to admit that the next decade will be a dangerous one for freedom. Lets sit down and take stock of recent events. Much has been written to put everyone face to face with the ugly troubles of the new world economy. A clear eyed appraisal of the worst that is likely to happen in the next 10-20 years, will allow all living now, to face up to the future with bravery and self possession. Before delving into what the facts of today mean for your freedom and money over the next 10 years, lets review where we are right now.
1.The United states has temporary become Japan, complete with zombie banks, massive government bailouts, government takeovers, higher marginal taxes, plunging property values, and rising unemployment. What is true of the United States is also effecting nearly every other democratic republic on this planet. You should not take my word for it but please don't use the governments numbers.
2.Without the high savings rate of Japan the United States must soon morph into a Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany hyper-inflationary style disaster. True recovery or a Japanese “lost decade” are highly unlikely for the United States. Fed Chairmans Alan Greenspan & Ben Bernanke, have created more money then has been printed in America in the previous 200 years before they took office . (no I am not joking, this is as real as your life gets) Ask yourself what the word TRILLION means next time you hear about the USA planning its finances.
3.Chinese and Russian governments are both hostile to human/property rights, real elections, or any checks and balances. Both illiberal autocracies are buying up massive quantities of oil, rare earth elements, to become rich in a post-dollar world. Much aid has been given by the worlds 2 “flagship autocracies” to small resource rich nations with very poor human rights records.
4.The entire world financial system is bloodied, with philosophically antagonistic autocracies playing creditor to “mixed economy” republics, stumbling under mountains of welfare state debt. The net creditors of the world have been attempting to create a new reserve currency based on precious metals and energy. Normally I would support such a measure, too bad China and Russia are unlikely to include convertibility of paper money into such metals. Some governments will grow richer while most individuals are fleeced via inflation.
5.Sovereign Wealth funds, state owned companies, and massive bailouts are pushing private enterprises to the margins of economic life in many countries. Governments are creating their own coercive monopolies funded from bottomless wells of newly printed money. Clearly freedom could be smothered under the “invisible foot” of government funding and regulations. A nightmare world where America becomes as socialist as France and China backtracks to full state ownership of any large enterprise. World economic growth and output is likely to suffer badly as it always has, when governments start choosing winners and losers. Prepare for more scarcity.
So with all that bad news, is their any hope for a future that includes freedom and its necessary roots in the soil of free enterprise? My answer is yes, more then ever. I am not saying the next ten years will be a sunny picnic, but a closer look at history shows opportunities and even hope. Make no mistake that massive numbers of individuals will have to relearn the art of private independence/interdependence, re-impose limits on their governments run wild, rewrite regulations to be simple and understandable to all (not just legal/finance professionals) and effectively resist every malignantly insecure politician or military commander, yearning lustfully to impose tyranny in an uncertain world.
Real Free markets could return, after an absence of 96 years.
Beyond a certain point, complexity is fraud-- PJ O'Rourke
Brief video history of humanities republics.
The world has not had anything resembling a fully free market anywhere on the globe since 1776- 1913. Those politicians, bureaucrats, and “corporatacracies” who think a new socialist future are of advantage to themselves, are becoming overconfident. Overconfidence is the norm when trends favor your views. Advocates of free markets, had been correctly warned by Francis Fukuyama, that differing cultural perceptions about skill, luck and who to trust, would limit capitalism's triumph after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Many central banks, subsidized corporate giants and politicians have been posing as advocates of free markets for nearly a century, while the actions of each suggest far different values.
Now lustful autocrats are puffing their chests out, despite credible evidence that the controlled parts of mixed economies caused the massive failures we see today. One of the best examples of governmental overconfidence goes as follows: Ian Bremmer the president of the Eurasian group, was recently asked this loaded question by a Chinese senior level official: “Now that the free market model has failed , tell me what you think the appropriate role is for the state in the economy?” Questions like this pre-suppose that we were living in anything remotely resembling a laissez faire market to begin with. Worst of all is that this Chinese official probably believes that the free market model has indeed failed. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Don't get me wrong the years 1989 - 2000 were better years for libertarians then any we have seen in the last 50 some years. Trends were swinging very slowly back to free markets and men. However it must be stated that the “deregulation” of the 90's was mainly for the well connected rich and consisted of.... Massive amounts of printed regulation, that few would or could ever become expert in according to a search of financial terms at the US governments archives and records department. http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/multidb.cgi As bad as US regulations are most other nations have much more excessive regulation then we do.
*Tax loopholes that can only be found with the help of very highly paid professionals. Salaried employees lost their ability to plan their taxes in the 40's and the middle class lost most of their tax planing privileges after the 1980's S&L crisis, as Robert Kirosaki (see vid above) has explained in the best selling “Rich Dad” book series. Tax codes in most advanced countries slap the young upstart capitalist with heavy taxes while the large companies have learned to avoid such extortion via high priced professionals and creative accounting. It seems reasonable to demand this state of affairs be abolished or reversed. Small and mid sized private enterprises are being crushed underfoot by the partnership of mega-corporations and politicians.
*It was natural for Alan Greenspan to predict an “Age of Turbulence” (the title of his book), his Federal Reserve was still acting as a senior counterfeiting and price fixing committee in the open, with full legal sanction, and Greenspan largely responsible for the “turbulence” he himself predicted. All banks were forced to give uneconomic loans via years of negative real interest rates, (rates lower then the rate of inflation). The only profit center left for banks was transaction fees. A powerful perverse incentive for every financier, to have the highest transaction volumes/leverage possible and leave the obvious coming defaults to sleepy taxpayers. Bad management, even by the low standards of a Central Bank has been the 9 decade status quo. (Note modern central banks are a criminal organization, illegal under a proper reading of article 1 section 10 of the US Constitution, or any other law preventing price fixing or counterfeiting)
*At this time the US Fed and the Bureau of Labor Statistics were spitting out inaccurate (or possibly fraudulent) data on which the investment community was basing its decisions. (as explained and demonstrated by John William at shadowstats.com.) Bad numbers have a similar effect to outright socialism, as information is short circuited by disinformation.
*Despite a brief drive to balance the federal budget after the 1994 “House Republican surge” the same congressmen were back to pork-barrel spending by early in the year 2000. Politicians who want free markets but also want pork to buy votes, are more of a threat then those who are forthrightly against economic freedom. Politicians like Hugo Chavez or Ted Kennedy are clearly eligible for the insanity/stupidity defense but the house republicans have absolutely no excuse for that chapter of history.
Those parts of the economy thoroughly controlled by government supported corporate cartels, succeeded in wrecking the system of finance that reputable business needs to plan for the future and pay their staff. Is this the same era that the mainstream media, and government officials world wide, so bizarrely describe as free market and capitalist? In what alternative universe can any of the corrupted situations above be included in the words, “free market captalism”?
Yet again free markets are taking the blame for the sins of politicians and the monopolists that couldn't endure, without constant bailouts, congressional pork, murky central bank secrecy and various other forms of malicious mischief. Markets did not fall off a cliff on their own. Free markets were pushed off.
All market shakeouts before the creation of the Federal Reserve, were swift with fast recoveries. Until governments allowed central banks to do things EXTREMELY illegal for private citizens to do, economic breakdown was reserved for long wars with worthy opponents. Government officials created the deflation and (future) inflation we suffer and will continue to suffer under. Politicians are our employees and the current crop are poor performers. Direct your anger at the political incumbents who caused all this by voting for the challenger every single year. Voting for third parties if your in a state that never votes your way, is also a very good idea.
Its harder to lie to citizens with good memories
The malaise of the 70's was another era when the causes (Keynesian economics) and the effects (rampant inflation, bankrupt governments, third world revolt) could almost be seen side by side. Despite separation in time between friendly political legislation and unfriendly disaster, the public slowly became dimly aware of excess government as a problem to be solved.
Moving forward to 2009, search engines like google.com are making the memories of citizens superhuman and uncensored. Opportunistic politicians will not be able to confuse or mis-match cause and effect with the Internet open to all and youtube clips of Ron Paul + various Austrian school economists, warning us of the future we now live in, so many years ahead of time. Even in China hackers have so compromised the “green dam firewall” the government is considering abandoning the project. Likely the Chinese government will try summary executions next, but if executions worked, the Mongol Khanates and the wicked dark ages version of the Catholic Church, would have maintained world empire and prevented protestant movements.
Any technology or institution that increases public memory about what politicians said years ago, is not good for politicians, not good for socialism, but helpful to free debate. The possibility of genuine freedom movements in China or Russia or at very least massive continuing social unrest inside the BRIC nations (minus India) could give the free world some maneuvering room. Successful censorship in the Neo Feudal China/Russia would allow the west + asian tigers/India to remain far ahead of any autocracy in terms of information technology. I wouldn't bet on successful censorship in the long run however. Youth is a restless condition, especially in politics.
United States economic collapse and China's choices
When powerful commonwealths (like the United States) fall, navigating the power vacuum and maintaining freedom will be both difficult and dangerous. The fall and aftermath of the Soviet Unions fall gives us many clues of the shape of things to come.
Russia from 1989 through most of the 90's was for a brief period a “non-power” in world politics. Sadly its true that the coming hyperinflation in America is likely to paralyze the US military and economy for between 4 to 10 years. China will likely take the oil rich Spratly islands, send more military units to Africa/South/Latin America, step up aid to other autocracies and the republic Taiwan is of course doomed without the assistance of the US fleet. China will use violence more often to solve its problems while the US Armed Services are mothballed for lack of funds. Russia for its part will hold Europe in a sort of “energy ransom” while biting off tiny chunks of its “near abroad” as opportunity allows.
However this is likely as far as China/Russia can go. Thailand, Australia, S.Korea, Japan and India together, surely have enough power to curb Politburo adventurism. I expect America will sell some of its advanced armaments/techniques to the aforementioned, to generate “hard currency”, much as the Russians did in the Soviet Union's immediate aftermath. The difference is that republics faced with hemming in China/Russia, could end up with better military tech then China, on a unit for unit basis. No single country however (with a possible exception of India), will have anything like China's military size or ability to replace losses in a large scale “proxy war” style situation. Its inevitable that China will use more force on pacific and African nations when the American Security umbrella collapses. However Chinese expansionism might not be as successful as many strategists fear.
Military theorists speculate that missile technology is already making surface ships obsolete, but in submarines the United States (and by extension any ally who can purchase a few Los Angeles class boats) will have a very large advantage in any undeclared conventional warfare, on or under the high seas.(similar to the quasi war between America and France in 1789-1800) China might become the largest operational navy in the pacific, but its ability to resupply surface forces or land troops on any island is still at the mercy of American designed undersea and stealth air assets. Expect occasional small scale sea engagements (reported as mishaps) as China tests the extent of its control of the sea lanes until the Asian tigers + India and Australia become determined to better coordinate their response, to the emerging power.
China may do less muscle flexing during American financial paralysis then we might fear. Chinese culture is autocratic, but not inherently expansionist. More reliable then the “good intentions” of the worlds last remaining Politburo, is the fortunate un-intended aftermath of the communist parties one child policy. Simply put, China like Japan is running out of young military age men and women to use as pawns of the state. Much of Chinas land army is mainly trained/equipped to quell internal rebellion, suppress ethnic minorities and ensure that rural western Chinese do not migrate to the cities in numbers larger then eastern city governments can absorb.
Contrast this to America with little net demographic change (thanks to young immigrants) and India with an explosion of the young military age population. “China will grow old before it grows rich” according to investment demographer Harry S Dent.(who's recent book I recommend) A combination of military deterrence, careful diplomacy and a proper settlement of debts could convince China to to act responsibly. What is true of China is far worse for Russia, as the male population has an average lifespan of 59&1/2 years and falling.
The economic/military future of the world is fairly manageable, so long as America avoids becoming an autocracy, during its (likely) future period of total currency collapse. What shape American politics will take during or after a hyperinflation are largely unpredictable. The historical landscape however is littered with the bodies of democracies, republics, empires and tyrannies who tried to redistribute funds or fight economic crisis with the excessive printing of money. The American Empire is likely doomed but the Constitution and individual freedom world wide, may re-emerge stronger then ever. Unpleasant lessons of history will be forcefully refreshed in the minds of sleepy citizens. If free peoples can preserve representative forms of government in the next 10 years, the next 20 years could see some truly beautiful times for those born today, yearning to genuinely breath free.
1.The United states has temporary become Japan, complete with zombie banks, massive government bailouts, government takeovers, higher marginal taxes, plunging property values, and rising unemployment. What is true of the United States is also effecting nearly every other democratic republic on this planet. You should not take my word for it but please don't use the governments numbers.
2.Without the high savings rate of Japan the United States must soon morph into a Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany hyper-inflationary style disaster. True recovery or a Japanese “lost decade” are highly unlikely for the United States. Fed Chairmans Alan Greenspan & Ben Bernanke, have created more money then has been printed in America in the previous 200 years before they took office . (no I am not joking, this is as real as your life gets) Ask yourself what the word TRILLION means next time you hear about the USA planning its finances.
Gold & Silver Investments from Conspiracy of the Rich on Vimeo.
3.Chinese and Russian governments are both hostile to human/property rights, real elections, or any checks and balances. Both illiberal autocracies are buying up massive quantities of oil, rare earth elements, to become rich in a post-dollar world. Much aid has been given by the worlds 2 “flagship autocracies” to small resource rich nations with very poor human rights records.
4.The entire world financial system is bloodied, with philosophically antagonistic autocracies playing creditor to “mixed economy” republics, stumbling under mountains of welfare state debt. The net creditors of the world have been attempting to create a new reserve currency based on precious metals and energy. Normally I would support such a measure, too bad China and Russia are unlikely to include convertibility of paper money into such metals. Some governments will grow richer while most individuals are fleeced via inflation.
5.Sovereign Wealth funds, state owned companies, and massive bailouts are pushing private enterprises to the margins of economic life in many countries. Governments are creating their own coercive monopolies funded from bottomless wells of newly printed money. Clearly freedom could be smothered under the “invisible foot” of government funding and regulations. A nightmare world where America becomes as socialist as France and China backtracks to full state ownership of any large enterprise. World economic growth and output is likely to suffer badly as it always has, when governments start choosing winners and losers. Prepare for more scarcity.
So with all that bad news, is their any hope for a future that includes freedom and its necessary roots in the soil of free enterprise? My answer is yes, more then ever. I am not saying the next ten years will be a sunny picnic, but a closer look at history shows opportunities and even hope. Make no mistake that massive numbers of individuals will have to relearn the art of private independence/interdependence, re-impose limits on their governments run wild, rewrite regulations to be simple and understandable to all (not just legal/finance professionals) and effectively resist every malignantly insecure politician or military commander, yearning lustfully to impose tyranny in an uncertain world.
Real Free markets could return, after an absence of 96 years.
Beyond a certain point, complexity is fraud-- PJ O'Rourke
Brief video history of humanities republics.
The world has not had anything resembling a fully free market anywhere on the globe since 1776- 1913. Those politicians, bureaucrats, and “corporatacracies” who think a new socialist future are of advantage to themselves, are becoming overconfident. Overconfidence is the norm when trends favor your views. Advocates of free markets, had been correctly warned by Francis Fukuyama, that differing cultural perceptions about skill, luck and who to trust, would limit capitalism's triumph after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Many central banks, subsidized corporate giants and politicians have been posing as advocates of free markets for nearly a century, while the actions of each suggest far different values.
Now lustful autocrats are puffing their chests out, despite credible evidence that the controlled parts of mixed economies caused the massive failures we see today. One of the best examples of governmental overconfidence goes as follows: Ian Bremmer the president of the Eurasian group, was recently asked this loaded question by a Chinese senior level official: “Now that the free market model has failed , tell me what you think the appropriate role is for the state in the economy?” Questions like this pre-suppose that we were living in anything remotely resembling a laissez faire market to begin with. Worst of all is that this Chinese official probably believes that the free market model has indeed failed. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Don't get me wrong the years 1989 - 2000 were better years for libertarians then any we have seen in the last 50 some years. Trends were swinging very slowly back to free markets and men. However it must be stated that the “deregulation” of the 90's was mainly for the well connected rich and consisted of.... Massive amounts of printed regulation, that few would or could ever become expert in according to a search of financial terms at the US governments archives and records department. http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/multidb.cgi As bad as US regulations are most other nations have much more excessive regulation then we do.
*Tax loopholes that can only be found with the help of very highly paid professionals. Salaried employees lost their ability to plan their taxes in the 40's and the middle class lost most of their tax planing privileges after the 1980's S&L crisis, as Robert Kirosaki (see vid above) has explained in the best selling “Rich Dad” book series. Tax codes in most advanced countries slap the young upstart capitalist with heavy taxes while the large companies have learned to avoid such extortion via high priced professionals and creative accounting. It seems reasonable to demand this state of affairs be abolished or reversed. Small and mid sized private enterprises are being crushed underfoot by the partnership of mega-corporations and politicians.
*It was natural for Alan Greenspan to predict an “Age of Turbulence” (the title of his book), his Federal Reserve was still acting as a senior counterfeiting and price fixing committee in the open, with full legal sanction, and Greenspan largely responsible for the “turbulence” he himself predicted. All banks were forced to give uneconomic loans via years of negative real interest rates, (rates lower then the rate of inflation). The only profit center left for banks was transaction fees. A powerful perverse incentive for every financier, to have the highest transaction volumes/leverage possible and leave the obvious coming defaults to sleepy taxpayers. Bad management, even by the low standards of a Central Bank has been the 9 decade status quo. (Note modern central banks are a criminal organization, illegal under a proper reading of article 1 section 10 of the US Constitution, or any other law preventing price fixing or counterfeiting)
*At this time the US Fed and the Bureau of Labor Statistics were spitting out inaccurate (or possibly fraudulent) data on which the investment community was basing its decisions. (as explained and demonstrated by John William at shadowstats.com.) Bad numbers have a similar effect to outright socialism, as information is short circuited by disinformation.
*Despite a brief drive to balance the federal budget after the 1994 “House Republican surge” the same congressmen were back to pork-barrel spending by early in the year 2000. Politicians who want free markets but also want pork to buy votes, are more of a threat then those who are forthrightly against economic freedom. Politicians like Hugo Chavez or Ted Kennedy are clearly eligible for the insanity/stupidity defense but the house republicans have absolutely no excuse for that chapter of history.
Those parts of the economy thoroughly controlled by government supported corporate cartels, succeeded in wrecking the system of finance that reputable business needs to plan for the future and pay their staff. Is this the same era that the mainstream media, and government officials world wide, so bizarrely describe as free market and capitalist? In what alternative universe can any of the corrupted situations above be included in the words, “free market captalism”?
Yet again free markets are taking the blame for the sins of politicians and the monopolists that couldn't endure, without constant bailouts, congressional pork, murky central bank secrecy and various other forms of malicious mischief. Markets did not fall off a cliff on their own. Free markets were pushed off.
All market shakeouts before the creation of the Federal Reserve, were swift with fast recoveries. Until governments allowed central banks to do things EXTREMELY illegal for private citizens to do, economic breakdown was reserved for long wars with worthy opponents. Government officials created the deflation and (future) inflation we suffer and will continue to suffer under. Politicians are our employees and the current crop are poor performers. Direct your anger at the political incumbents who caused all this by voting for the challenger every single year. Voting for third parties if your in a state that never votes your way, is also a very good idea.
Its harder to lie to citizens with good memories
The malaise of the 70's was another era when the causes (Keynesian economics) and the effects (rampant inflation, bankrupt governments, third world revolt) could almost be seen side by side. Despite separation in time between friendly political legislation and unfriendly disaster, the public slowly became dimly aware of excess government as a problem to be solved.
Moving forward to 2009, search engines like google.com are making the memories of citizens superhuman and uncensored. Opportunistic politicians will not be able to confuse or mis-match cause and effect with the Internet open to all and youtube clips of Ron Paul + various Austrian school economists, warning us of the future we now live in, so many years ahead of time. Even in China hackers have so compromised the “green dam firewall” the government is considering abandoning the project. Likely the Chinese government will try summary executions next, but if executions worked, the Mongol Khanates and the wicked dark ages version of the Catholic Church, would have maintained world empire and prevented protestant movements.
Any technology or institution that increases public memory about what politicians said years ago, is not good for politicians, not good for socialism, but helpful to free debate. The possibility of genuine freedom movements in China or Russia or at very least massive continuing social unrest inside the BRIC nations (minus India) could give the free world some maneuvering room. Successful censorship in the Neo Feudal China/Russia would allow the west + asian tigers/India to remain far ahead of any autocracy in terms of information technology. I wouldn't bet on successful censorship in the long run however. Youth is a restless condition, especially in politics.
United States economic collapse and China's choices
When powerful commonwealths (like the United States) fall, navigating the power vacuum and maintaining freedom will be both difficult and dangerous. The fall and aftermath of the Soviet Unions fall gives us many clues of the shape of things to come.
Russia from 1989 through most of the 90's was for a brief period a “non-power” in world politics. Sadly its true that the coming hyperinflation in America is likely to paralyze the US military and economy for between 4 to 10 years. China will likely take the oil rich Spratly islands, send more military units to Africa/South/Latin America, step up aid to other autocracies and the republic Taiwan is of course doomed without the assistance of the US fleet. China will use violence more often to solve its problems while the US Armed Services are mothballed for lack of funds. Russia for its part will hold Europe in a sort of “energy ransom” while biting off tiny chunks of its “near abroad” as opportunity allows.
However this is likely as far as China/Russia can go. Thailand, Australia, S.Korea, Japan and India together, surely have enough power to curb Politburo adventurism. I expect America will sell some of its advanced armaments/techniques to the aforementioned, to generate “hard currency”, much as the Russians did in the Soviet Union's immediate aftermath. The difference is that republics faced with hemming in China/Russia, could end up with better military tech then China, on a unit for unit basis. No single country however (with a possible exception of India), will have anything like China's military size or ability to replace losses in a large scale “proxy war” style situation. Its inevitable that China will use more force on pacific and African nations when the American Security umbrella collapses. However Chinese expansionism might not be as successful as many strategists fear.
Military theorists speculate that missile technology is already making surface ships obsolete, but in submarines the United States (and by extension any ally who can purchase a few Los Angeles class boats) will have a very large advantage in any undeclared conventional warfare, on or under the high seas.(similar to the quasi war between America and France in 1789-1800) China might become the largest operational navy in the pacific, but its ability to resupply surface forces or land troops on any island is still at the mercy of American designed undersea and stealth air assets. Expect occasional small scale sea engagements (reported as mishaps) as China tests the extent of its control of the sea lanes until the Asian tigers + India and Australia become determined to better coordinate their response, to the emerging power.
China may do less muscle flexing during American financial paralysis then we might fear. Chinese culture is autocratic, but not inherently expansionist. More reliable then the “good intentions” of the worlds last remaining Politburo, is the fortunate un-intended aftermath of the communist parties one child policy. Simply put, China like Japan is running out of young military age men and women to use as pawns of the state. Much of Chinas land army is mainly trained/equipped to quell internal rebellion, suppress ethnic minorities and ensure that rural western Chinese do not migrate to the cities in numbers larger then eastern city governments can absorb.
Contrast this to America with little net demographic change (thanks to young immigrants) and India with an explosion of the young military age population. “China will grow old before it grows rich” according to investment demographer Harry S Dent.(who's recent book I recommend) A combination of military deterrence, careful diplomacy and a proper settlement of debts could convince China to to act responsibly. What is true of China is far worse for Russia, as the male population has an average lifespan of 59&1/2 years and falling.
The economic/military future of the world is fairly manageable, so long as America avoids becoming an autocracy, during its (likely) future period of total currency collapse. What shape American politics will take during or after a hyperinflation are largely unpredictable. The historical landscape however is littered with the bodies of democracies, republics, empires and tyrannies who tried to redistribute funds or fight economic crisis with the excessive printing of money. The American Empire is likely doomed but the Constitution and individual freedom world wide, may re-emerge stronger then ever. Unpleasant lessons of history will be forcefully refreshed in the minds of sleepy citizens. If free peoples can preserve representative forms of government in the next 10 years, the next 20 years could see some truly beautiful times for those born today, yearning to genuinely breath free.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Debunking the Doomsayers
Note-- This article was originally a response to an article also written on blog spot entitled, "Sorry no Gas". What I love about this article is another limitation on the human mind I call "Lack of informed imagination". Inventors are rarely afflicted by this. Unfortunately most bureaucrats and those in job that perpetually look into the past are loaded down with a lack of imagination. The author of "Sorry no Gas" is one of the better examples of this breed and thus I give him credit for good writing. What he says would even be true if suddenly all the scientists were to simply stop discovering and inventors stopped inventing. Fortunately for humanity scientist and inventors still gain great wealth and social prestige from doing what they are doing (at least in the capitalist west). What you should take away from this article is the fact that inventors will be needed to create a future with more knowledge and fewer limitations then we are accustomed to today. A slowdown in technological progress could be disastrous for us in this future of limited oil.
Most signs of progress seems to be increasing in pace as information is exchanged among researchers. The only real worry of mine is the falling standards of education we are seeing world wide. Smart motivated children are the fuel on which humanities future is built. Humans would largely perish from the Earth without children who out preform their elders in the art of discovery. Anything that slows down technical progress should be looked at through this lens. The current population on earth would not be possible minus what we have invented so far.
With that in mind, read the article "Sorry no Gas" then read my responses and the research behind it (provided below).
***********************************************************************************
The doom and gloom crowd forgets one very important fact about resource depletion. We are entering the era of genetic and nano engineering. As resources become more scare, nano robots building everything from raw meat to skyscrapers from scratch, could keep humanity ahead of the depleting oil. The line between machine and organism is going to become quite blurred in the next 20-40 years. Never underestimate science (or a better word perhaps is intelligent individuals armed with good info) to ultimately defeat every big resource shortage that comes our way. Resource depletion can only destory major sections of the human population, IF progress in Nano and Genetic engineering is slowed down by narrow minded traditionalists. (which is not to say some safety features should not be built into this emerging tech to avoid disaster).
Amazing new things are on the horizon that will make peak oil seem as alarmist as coal shortages in the 19th century appear to modern eyes now. Solar panels that grow them selfs after a technician programs the cells to do so. That is just a sampling of the sort of tech we as humans are going to be accustomed to. Fifty years ago somebody who said that humans could communicate at the speed of light, sending ideas and money across contentments would have been dismissed as a science fiction writer. Today we are now using the internet. That tiny fraction of geniuses that lifted humanity out of the dark ages will also lift humanity out of the sort of inefficiency and physical want we are again experiencing. The moldy over bureaucratized United States dominion is masquerading as some form of resource apocalypse. The fact is when you look at the price of oil in terms of gold grams instead of dollars the actual scarcity of of oil measured in the market price.... has not even budged! (The chart below is courtesy of www.goldmoney.com or www.runtogold.com
Look at the chart and assume that oil will be really expensive in another 20 year even when valued in a currency that does not depreciate such as gold or silver, even if that is not the case at the moment. Still I am rather hopeful because human beings are not in fact animals but rather a transitional form away from blind biological machinery toward greater intellect.
Unlike animals: Humans can remake the physical world by unlocking many of the physical laws that make the universe function. Human intelligence would have eventually come up with industrial civilization even with no hydro carbons in the ground. It may have taken longer to get to the tipping point, but humans would have reached it. My only cause for concern is the lingering animal instincts that humans display when put under serious survival pressure.
The question is can humanity overcome some of its age old superstitions? For instance many humans were killing cats in mid-evil Europe because they were believed to be witches in animal form. This placed no population check upon the rats that actually carried the black plague. Is this superstition so different from todays objections to bio medical research, that will keep us ahead of resource depletion? Another example would be how the repressiveness of governmental/educational institutions in most of the world keeps human potential unrealized. If enough of the old tradition and ignorance can be stripped away, the young will solve problems their elders could only despair over. It happens over and over through history. Physical limits on growth only become a problem when the growth of human knowledge slows down too much. Oil is only irreplaceable to a mindset that has no room for what has yet to be invented. Solar, nuclear and many other forms of power are in their pre-modle T phase if you liken them to a automobile development. Such early beginnings will seem primitive against what will be developed in even so short a time as 10 years.
Admittedly their is some cause for gloom in the short term. This recent "recession of democracy" is in large part due to resource depletion. On the plus side is that outer space has plenty of room to allow humans to truly matter in the cosmic sense.(instead of being a biological also ran, waiting for the next big asteroid impact) Governments that give inventors a dis-incentive to ply their mankind saving trade, is the real threat that gives "resource depletion" a chance to catch up to a spry humanity, that has outpaced poverty with knowledge for some time now. While many doom sayers are right to warn of a partial breakdown of society (particularly in the third world) and correctly point out how hard oil is to replace. Where these gloomy bureaucrats go wrong is the when they value human enginunity so lightly against the troubles we face now. Every 50-60 years their is a crisis of civilization. This crisis is called the "Kondratieff Winter"
Terra formation of Mars and other suitable worlds, asteroids, and other heavenly bodies made habitable by technology will likely make population problems on earth as quaint a problem as in-breeding is to a modern resident of any major city. Even with the primitive tech we have enough technology to form a major self supporting outpost on Mars or even a tiny city is not out of the question (and less impractical then you might imagine).
Before the technology catches up to us their will be the normal interval of war and strife. (muted by nuclear weapons this time around but longer lasting to be sure then WWII). Huge changes are afoot but none of them are likely to be very palatable. Our next 20 years are likely to be harder then our previous 20 years. Precious metals will likely kill fiat money and technology will be put to very sinister ends. Through it all humanity will survive and that tiny subset of humanity that invents new industries, will likely have saved us once again. No need for the doom and gloom in the long run but likely the first fifth of the 21'st century will be unhappy to be sure.
Sincerely Gordon Angelino (Raptoreyes)
Sources
(Nano technology)
Nano by Ed Regis (accessible to a non technical individual)
Engines of Creation by K Eric Drexler.(recommended only for engineers)
(Terra forming)
Entering Space by Robert Zubrin
Look up NASA's "Mars Direct" plan in early stage implementation now!
Most signs of progress seems to be increasing in pace as information is exchanged among researchers. The only real worry of mine is the falling standards of education we are seeing world wide. Smart motivated children are the fuel on which humanities future is built. Humans would largely perish from the Earth without children who out preform their elders in the art of discovery. Anything that slows down technical progress should be looked at through this lens. The current population on earth would not be possible minus what we have invented so far.
With that in mind, read the article "Sorry no Gas" then read my responses and the research behind it (provided below).
***********************************************************************************
The doom and gloom crowd forgets one very important fact about resource depletion. We are entering the era of genetic and nano engineering. As resources become more scare, nano robots building everything from raw meat to skyscrapers from scratch, could keep humanity ahead of the depleting oil. The line between machine and organism is going to become quite blurred in the next 20-40 years. Never underestimate science (or a better word perhaps is intelligent individuals armed with good info) to ultimately defeat every big resource shortage that comes our way. Resource depletion can only destory major sections of the human population, IF progress in Nano and Genetic engineering is slowed down by narrow minded traditionalists. (which is not to say some safety features should not be built into this emerging tech to avoid disaster).
Amazing new things are on the horizon that will make peak oil seem as alarmist as coal shortages in the 19th century appear to modern eyes now. Solar panels that grow them selfs after a technician programs the cells to do so. That is just a sampling of the sort of tech we as humans are going to be accustomed to. Fifty years ago somebody who said that humans could communicate at the speed of light, sending ideas and money across contentments would have been dismissed as a science fiction writer. Today we are now using the internet. That tiny fraction of geniuses that lifted humanity out of the dark ages will also lift humanity out of the sort of inefficiency and physical want we are again experiencing. The moldy over bureaucratized United States dominion is masquerading as some form of resource apocalypse. The fact is when you look at the price of oil in terms of gold grams instead of dollars the actual scarcity of of oil measured in the market price.... has not even budged! (The chart below is courtesy of www.goldmoney.com or www.runtogold.com
Look at the chart and assume that oil will be really expensive in another 20 year even when valued in a currency that does not depreciate such as gold or silver, even if that is not the case at the moment. Still I am rather hopeful because human beings are not in fact animals but rather a transitional form away from blind biological machinery toward greater intellect.
Unlike animals: Humans can remake the physical world by unlocking many of the physical laws that make the universe function. Human intelligence would have eventually come up with industrial civilization even with no hydro carbons in the ground. It may have taken longer to get to the tipping point, but humans would have reached it. My only cause for concern is the lingering animal instincts that humans display when put under serious survival pressure.
The question is can humanity overcome some of its age old superstitions? For instance many humans were killing cats in mid-evil Europe because they were believed to be witches in animal form. This placed no population check upon the rats that actually carried the black plague. Is this superstition so different from todays objections to bio medical research, that will keep us ahead of resource depletion? Another example would be how the repressiveness of governmental/educational institutions in most of the world keeps human potential unrealized. If enough of the old tradition and ignorance can be stripped away, the young will solve problems their elders could only despair over. It happens over and over through history. Physical limits on growth only become a problem when the growth of human knowledge slows down too much. Oil is only irreplaceable to a mindset that has no room for what has yet to be invented. Solar, nuclear and many other forms of power are in their pre-modle T phase if you liken them to a automobile development. Such early beginnings will seem primitive against what will be developed in even so short a time as 10 years.
Admittedly their is some cause for gloom in the short term. This recent "recession of democracy" is in large part due to resource depletion. On the plus side is that outer space has plenty of room to allow humans to truly matter in the cosmic sense.(instead of being a biological also ran, waiting for the next big asteroid impact) Governments that give inventors a dis-incentive to ply their mankind saving trade, is the real threat that gives "resource depletion" a chance to catch up to a spry humanity, that has outpaced poverty with knowledge for some time now. While many doom sayers are right to warn of a partial breakdown of society (particularly in the third world) and correctly point out how hard oil is to replace. Where these gloomy bureaucrats go wrong is the when they value human enginunity so lightly against the troubles we face now. Every 50-60 years their is a crisis of civilization. This crisis is called the "Kondratieff Winter"
Terra formation of Mars and other suitable worlds, asteroids, and other heavenly bodies made habitable by technology will likely make population problems on earth as quaint a problem as in-breeding is to a modern resident of any major city. Even with the primitive tech we have enough technology to form a major self supporting outpost on Mars or even a tiny city is not out of the question (and less impractical then you might imagine).
Before the technology catches up to us their will be the normal interval of war and strife. (muted by nuclear weapons this time around but longer lasting to be sure then WWII). Huge changes are afoot but none of them are likely to be very palatable. Our next 20 years are likely to be harder then our previous 20 years. Precious metals will likely kill fiat money and technology will be put to very sinister ends. Through it all humanity will survive and that tiny subset of humanity that invents new industries, will likely have saved us once again. No need for the doom and gloom in the long run but likely the first fifth of the 21'st century will be unhappy to be sure.
Sincerely Gordon Angelino (Raptoreyes)
Sources
(Nano technology)
Nano by Ed Regis (accessible to a non technical individual)
Engines of Creation by K Eric Drexler.(recommended only for engineers)
(Terra forming)
Entering Space by Robert Zubrin
Look up NASA's "Mars Direct" plan in early stage implementation now!
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Disgruntled at the Gas Pump? Blame politicians chaseing easy tax collections.
Yet again the free market proves that it is wiser than government officials. Here we see the market giving us a golden opportunity to preview future trends. Fueling the current price spike in oil, is the high cost of bringing new oil rigs into production, politico-economic chaos in the OPEC countries, growth of India/China, Middle East warfare, and of course the malicious currency devaluation inherent to any Fiat Money system. That all these mismanaged forces, came together at nearly the same point in history to cause an oil bubble, is quite extraordinary but hardly unexpected. Hopefully this mostly government induced turmoil, has caused a few of you to ask what your options are?
Some politicians talk about nuclear power, coal and drilling local oil wells. This talk is understandable, since such old energy technologies are very easy to tax. Such oil/nuclear facilities cannot be moved, when they fall under heavy taxation. For over 70 years the government has given heavy subsidies to coal oil and nuclear infrastructure projects. By contrast solar, wind and geothermal power operate best when dispersed. These nascent power sources have received very few subsidies, compared to more centralized power sources, that governments can slap with predatory taxes. Additionally: from the politician's point of view, coal oil and nuclear are also indispensable to military belligerency.
Perhaps the biggest long-term culprit in our current energy crisis, is the fact that governments have pushed industrialization faster than unfettered markets would have developed. For example, you can check the slow growth of industrialization in the 19th century guided by classical (laissez-faire) economics. Then look at the speed of industrialization in the violent government centered 20th century. Indeed the most controlled of the world economies the "beloved" Soviet Union, which remained the unchallenged darling of "intellectuals and statist planners"(looters in suits) world wide, had one of the dirtiest environments imaginable. The current Russian semi-autocracy that was built upon the bones of the old Soviet Union, still has one of the lowest energy efficiency ratings in the industrialized world. Contrast Russia's performance with the United States Great Britain or Switzerland, which despite high automobile use, have much greater efficiencies, at all levels of energy use and production. It is for that reason that we should allow the market to function free of interference.
For many years we've been lied to by governments, both foreign and domestic, simply because the politicians time horizon is on the order of 10-15 years. The majority of politicians need never face up to the messes they made while in office.
However markets that experience very little regulation have a tendency to unveil the truth in dramatic ways. Small and medium-sized private investors must live with the consequences their decisions far beyond the politician's term in office.
The free market was trying to warn us of our dependence on a single energy source for quite some time now. Price spikes in energy every 30 years are abnormal. With all the subsidies, resource wars, rampant currency inflation, and outright theft practiced by governments, it's often hard to hear what the energy markets, have been trying to tell us. For the first time ever, oil well north of the $135/barrel price range, may give the world a preview of possibilities to come. Unfortunately the voters in many countries have often sided with politicians to shoot the messenger, rather than deal with the message. Let's hope that this most recent oil price spike proves to be an exception to the sad historical trend. The energy futures markets are trying to tell us the painful truth and its past time we listened.
Some politicians talk about nuclear power, coal and drilling local oil wells. This talk is understandable, since such old energy technologies are very easy to tax. Such oil/nuclear facilities cannot be moved, when they fall under heavy taxation. For over 70 years the government has given heavy subsidies to coal oil and nuclear infrastructure projects. By contrast solar, wind and geothermal power operate best when dispersed. These nascent power sources have received very few subsidies, compared to more centralized power sources, that governments can slap with predatory taxes. Additionally: from the politician's point of view, coal oil and nuclear are also indispensable to military belligerency.
Perhaps the biggest long-term culprit in our current energy crisis, is the fact that governments have pushed industrialization faster than unfettered markets would have developed. For example, you can check the slow growth of industrialization in the 19th century guided by classical (laissez-faire) economics. Then look at the speed of industrialization in the violent government centered 20th century. Indeed the most controlled of the world economies the "beloved" Soviet Union, which remained the unchallenged darling of "intellectuals and statist planners"(looters in suits) world wide, had one of the dirtiest environments imaginable. The current Russian semi-autocracy that was built upon the bones of the old Soviet Union, still has one of the lowest energy efficiency ratings in the industrialized world. Contrast Russia's performance with the United States Great Britain or Switzerland, which despite high automobile use, have much greater efficiencies, at all levels of energy use and production. It is for that reason that we should allow the market to function free of interference.
For many years we've been lied to by governments, both foreign and domestic, simply because the politicians time horizon is on the order of 10-15 years. The majority of politicians need never face up to the messes they made while in office.
However markets that experience very little regulation have a tendency to unveil the truth in dramatic ways. Small and medium-sized private investors must live with the consequences their decisions far beyond the politician's term in office.
The free market was trying to warn us of our dependence on a single energy source for quite some time now. Price spikes in energy every 30 years are abnormal. With all the subsidies, resource wars, rampant currency inflation, and outright theft practiced by governments, it's often hard to hear what the energy markets, have been trying to tell us. For the first time ever, oil well north of the $135/barrel price range, may give the world a preview of possibilities to come. Unfortunately the voters in many countries have often sided with politicians to shoot the messenger, rather than deal with the message. Let's hope that this most recent oil price spike proves to be an exception to the sad historical trend. The energy futures markets are trying to tell us the painful truth and its past time we listened.
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